New Zealand Pilot Shortage: Analysis

New Zealand does have a pilot shortage, and the industry has been saying so for years. The longer answer is covering why it's happening, how severe it is, and what it means for airlines.

How Bad Is The Shortage?

Research from the Aviation Industry Association of New Zealand and the Ringa Hora Services Workforce Development Council shows New Zealand needs an additional 100 pilots annually. Demand for pilots is increasing by about 2–3% per year and cannot be met by the current system.

From 2024, workforce entries are projected to grow at 1.4% per year on average, while exits are running at 3% per year. This is a sustained structural gap that won't close without intervention.

Researchers have warned that if nothing changes, aircraft will be grounded and commercial airlines will need to cut schedules, which could be as soon as 2028 for small aircraft operators, 2030 for turboprops, and 2032 for jet operators.

When Did The Problem Start?

COVID-19 accelerated the pilot shortage significantly. As many experienced pilots had no choice but to leave the industry after commercial flights were grounded during lockdowns, and many simply didn't return post covid.

Layered on top of that is a structural training cost problem. The student loan borrowing cap for domestic students has been set at $35,000 per year since 2013, a figure that hasn't kept pace with the actual cost of pilot training which is effectively locking out students without family financial support. Course costs now frequently reach at least $120,000, and up to a fifth of trainees are dropping out mid training due to cost pressures.

A Global Comparison

New Zealand's shortage doesn't exist in isolation. The shortfall of pilots in North America alone is estimated at 17,000 in 2024 and expected to remain significant over the next decade. This international demand could double the rate of New Zealand trained pilots leaving the local workforce to move overseas within ten years

Globally, researchers predict the pilot shortage will reach between 34,000 and 50,000 by 2025, potentially rising to 80,000 by the end of the decade. For a small, geographically isolated market like New Zealand, competing for pilots against airlines in the United States, Middle East, and Asia, which offer higher salaries and faster career progression is a structural disadvantage.

How Are Airlines Navigating This Challenge?

Air New Zealand has moved faster than most. The Mangōpare Air New Zealand Pilot Cadetship accelerates the journey from novice to commercial pilot, from the typical 24–36 months down to around 14 months, with Air New Zealand funding most of the training costs for each cohort of 30 cadets. Jetstar has also been active, undertaking its biggest pilot recruitment drive in New Zealand in 15 years, achieving over 20% growth in its pilot numbers in the past 12 months. Recruitment alone, though, won't resolve a structural supply problem.

An Engineering Shortage Looms Behind

It's worth nothing that it's not only pilots, but New Zealand also has a more severe engineering shortage. Currently having around 3,000 licensed aircraft maintenance engineers, which is 300 to 500 short of what demand requires. By 2034, the industry will need approximately 4,500, and without significant intervention, the shortfall will deepen as an older cohort of workers exits the workforce faster than replacements arrive. No plane flies without an engineer signing it off, and this part of the workforce crisis receives considerably less public attention than the pilot shortage.

How New Zealand's Government Responded

In September 2025, the New Zealand government released a 25-point Aviation Action Plan, initiating a programme to update pilot and engineer training pipelines, promote aviation careers, and pursue mutual recognition agreements for international licences. Ringa Hora was tasked with updating the pilot qualification framework by end of 2025.

Associate Minister of Transport James Meager noted that programmes in the United States see pilots qualify in just over a year, compared to the 18–20 months required in New Zealand, and flagged that compressing training timelines was a key area under review.

The AIANZ welcomed the plan but was direct about what it still needed: lifting the outdated student loan cap remains the single most critical barrier to getting more New Zealanders into training. Without that change, the other reforms address symptoms rather than the root cause.

My Opinion And What It Means For Airlines

For our flag carrier Air New Zealand, the near term risk is manageable, provided their cadet and recruitment programmes continue at pace. The medium term risk, particularly on regional and turboprop routes, is more acute. If costs keep rising and pilot supply stays constrained, those pressures will eventually flow through to airfares, and regional connectivity is the most vulnerable part of New Zealand's aviation network.

For smaller operators, the timeline is tighter. Flight schools are already under pressure producing pilots fast enough to meet demand, with training in New Zealand currently taking up to three times longer than in comparable overseas markets. Regional routes are where schedule cuts will appear first if the shortage deepens.

The structural mismatch between supply and demand is real. The government has acknowledged it, the industry is responding with cadet programmes and recruitment drives. But the decisive intervention should be fixing the training cost and loan policy settings, and that currently remains unresolved. Until it is, New Zealand's pilot pipeline will stay under pressure, and airlines will keep managing around a problem that hasn't yet peaked.