Middle East Airspace Disruption: What It Means for Airlines and Global Aviation

US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, and Tehran's subsequent retaliation across the region, forced at least eight countries to shut their airspace, including Iran, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE. The consequences for global aviation have been immediate, severe, and far from resolved.

How Dependent is Global Aviation

on the Gulf Corridor?

For decades, Europe to Asia traffic has flowed straight through the Middle East. The region is home to some of aviation's most powerful mega hubs such as Dubai International Airport, Hamad International Airport and Zayed International Airport, and to carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways.

Tony Stanton, consultant director of Strategic Air in Australia, describes Middle Eastern airspace as "a high-capacity bridge" between Europe and Asia.

"When that bridge collapses, or the bridge closes, the traffic doesn't largely disappear. It tends to funnel either north or south into those two main corridors, and then what we see is those two corridors become very congested because they're narrow corridors." - Tony Stanton

The timing compounds the problem. With Russian airspace already closed to most Western carriers following the Ukraine conflict, the Middle East had become the primary bypass. Japan Airlines Flight JL43 from Tokyo to London is a case in point. Before Russia's 2022 invasion, it flew west over Russian territory. It has since operated eastward over the Pacific, Alaska and Canada, adding 2.4 hours and burning approximately 5,600 extra gallons of fuel per flight, an increase of roughly 20%.

The Immediate Operational Picture

More than 11,000 flights have been cancelled or disrupted, with over one million travellers affected. Airlines including Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways, Air India, Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, Turkish Airlines, Delta and American Airlines cancelled or rerouted services across Europe, Asia and beyond.

More than 1,800 flights in and out of Middle East countries were cancelled on the first day alone, with another 1,400 cancelled the following day, according to aviation data firm Cirium. Global air cargo capacity dropped 18% within 24 hours of the closures taking effect, according to Rotate Live Capacity data.

The Gulf carriers bore the sharpest immediate impact. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad all suspended operations from their home hubs. Up to 8,000 passengers were reported stranded in Qatar alone, with the government covering hotel accommodation costs and extending visas.

EASA issued guidance covering airspace across Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia, advising operators not to fly within those countries due to risks from missiles, air defence systems and interception activity.

The Airline Economics

Here's where the disruption translates into financial damage. Industry estimates suggest rerouting a single long-haul flight adds 90–120 minutes of flying time. Multiplied across hundreds of daily flights, those minutes add up to significant fuel burn and crew costs.

Jet fuel prices in northwest Europe jumped to around $1,259.75 per metric tonne (the highest level since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war). Energy prices rose approximately 25–30% following the escalation, with insurers and carriers also contending with higher war risk premiums that may flow through to fares.

Jet fuel typically accounts for 20–30% of airline operating costs. The most significant risk is a sustained rise in fuel prices squeezing margins and credit profiles if airlines cannot fully pass higher costs on to passengers. IATA's economic forecast for 2026 estimated a net operating margin of just 6.9% and a net margin of 3.9% for the world's airlines

Delta Air Lines has disclosed that every 1-cent increase in the price of jet fuel per gallon adds approximately $40 million to its annual fuel bill; a 10% increase would add $1 billion to Delta's 2026 fuel costs alone, according to Third Bridge analyst Peter McNally.

Some economists predict costs for the global aviation industry, covering added fuel, rerouting, and interruption of passenger and cargo services could exceed $1 billion if the conflict extends.

Hedging strategies provide partial insulation. Qantas CEO Vanessa Hudson noted at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit that the airline has "pretty good hedging in place, but these are pretty significant impacts on aviation, and we're just continuing to watch how it all unfolds.

Who Gets Hurt The Most?

The exposure is not uniform. For airlines headquartered outside the region, the disruption is more contained but still significant. Carriers with direct exposure to Middle Eastern destinations have suspended most services, while aircraft and crew caught in affected airspace have created knock on effects across broader networks.

The Gulf carriers, Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad all face the most acute near term damage. Their entire business model is built on the hub and spoke system flowing through the Gulf.

Paul Charles, CEO of luxury travel consultancy PC Agency, described the disruption as "pretty well the biggest shutdown we've seen certainly since the COVID pandemic," adding that beyond passenger disruption, the cargo impact would run to "billions of dollars."

Air cargo is particularly exposed. Middle East cargo disruption could triple airfreight rates on affected lanes if the conflict continues, according to Air Cargo News analysis. Perishables, pharmaceuticals, and time sensitive freight - all of which move heavily through Gulf hubs, will all most likely face the sharpest supply chain impact.

What Comes Next? My Verdict

Emirates has signalled it expects to return to 100% of its network within days, subject to airspace availability. Qatar Airways has begun operating limited repatriation and commercial flights from Doha. Virgin Atlantic has suspended Dubai operations until 28 March and paused Riyadh services for an initial two-week period. EASA's guidance currently runs to 11 March, with rolling extensions expected as the military situation remains active. The pattern from prior conflicts suggests gradual, corridor-by-corridor reopening rather than a clean return to normal operations.

The decisive variable is duration. The longer airspace closures and market volatility persist, the greater the strain on earnings, liquidity and credit quality across the sector. For most major global airlines, the disruption appears to be a severe but manageable shock for now. The sector has weathered terrorist attacks, pandemics, financial crises and regional wars before, and demonstrated consistent ability to adapt.

The structural question worth watching is longer-term. If the Gulf corridor remains unreliable for an extended period, airlines will begin redesigning networks around it, just as they did following the Russia-Ukraine airspace closure. That process took months to stabilise then. It would take at least as long now, with considerably more traffic at stake.